My Bitcoin Price Target

The more I read about the economy and the Fed's antics, my interest in Bitcoin goes up; just like its price.

(This was taken yesterday)

(This is today)

My point still stands.

Last week, JP Morgan set a price-target for Bitcoin to reach $146,000. The main thesis being that bitcoin would be a replacement for gold.

"Bitcoin has the potential to reach $146,000 in the long term as it competes with gold as an asset class.

Bitcoin’s market capitalization of around $575 billion would have to rise by 4.6 times -- for a theoretical price of $146,000 -- to match the total private sector investment in gold"

With the recent declines, it'll be fun to set a price target of my own using JP Morgan's framework.

Rushil's Price Target:

Bitcoin won't be similar to gold as a store of value. It'll be better. This will make the market cap for Bitcoin surpass gold.

Let's say Bitcoin is twice as good as gold (it's probably more). The market cap for Bitcoin would be 20 trillion (double what gold is currently at). With that in mind, here's my price target:

Napkin Math:

Yes, JP Morgan probably had better financial models, resources, technicals, and analysts to set their price-target. Mine was calculated on a napkin.

Also yes, I realize that I'm coming across as a TikTok investor. A million per Bitcoin sounds insane, but from what we're seeing; it's not impossible.

To understand Bitcoin's success, we must know why Gold does and does not work as a store of value.

Like gold, bitcoins are:

  • Scarce  - Fed printers can't inflate them
  • Durable - you can't damage software

Unlike gold, bitcoins are:

  • Easily portable - transferred electronically
  • Divisible - into trillionths if required
  • Verifiable - through the distributed ledger
  • Difficult to counterfeit - practically impossible
  • Easy to store - electronic
  • Fungible - every bitcoin is equal

The above is a gross oversimplification, but it summarizes why I believe Bitcoin is better than gold. If I'm right, Bictoin will worth more than JP Morgan's conservative price target of $146,000.

All things considered, price targets don’t mean shit. It’s just like your horoscope, but less legit. That being said, this was a fun little exercise to show where I stand on Bitcoin. Bullish to a naive amount.